Roma vs Ludogorets

Roma’s hopes of qualifying for the Europa League knockouts are hanging by a thread ahead of Ludogorets’ visit to the Stadio Olimpico for a nail-biting Group C finale.

Last season’s Europa Conference League winners have blown hot and cold across their five Europa League matches this term (W2, D1, L2) and have to beat Ludogorets here to make it out of the group stages. Level on points with the perennial Bulgarian champions, ‘I Giallorossi’ need all three points here following an underwhelming 2-1 defeat in Razgrad in the reverse fixture. Jose Mourinho’s men head into proceedings as significant pre-match favourites, which is no wonder as they’ve never lost a home clash against Bulgarian visitors in major European competition (W4, D1). It’s worth noting they kept four clean sheets across those five matches, which hasn’t been the case in their last four competitive home fixtures (W1, L3).

On the other hand, visiting Ludogorets have experienced identical fortunes across the opening five Europa League rounds at Roma (W2, D1, L2), though their away form cannot inspire much confidence. The Bulgarians have gone winless on both Group C travels (D1, L1) despite scoring before halftime on each occasion. By extension, the ‘Eagles’ have won none of their last 11 away matches in the Europa League (D3, L8), failing to register a single shutout in this run. Since winning their first-ever European trip to face Italian opponents, the visitors have lost both subsequent UEFA-sanctioned visits to the country via an aggregate score of 5-0. It’ll take something special from Ludogorets to play down the odds in Rome, considering they’ve only won once on their last four competitive road trips (D1, L2), netting under 1.5 goals three times.