Palmeiras vs Botafogo

A place in the Copa Libertadores quarter-finals is on the line as Palmeiras and Botafogo go head-to-head in the return leg of their all-Brazilian last-16 tie at the Allianz Parque.

Reigning Campeonato Brasileiro Serie A holders Palmeiras have a mountain to climb following a 2-1 first-leg loss. However, they can turn to their scintillating form at the Allianz Parque for inspiration, having won nine out of their last ten competitive games on home turf (L1), including a morale-boosting 2-1 victory against bitter rivals Sao Paulo at the weekend. A narrow one-goal margin deficit pales in comparison with Palmeiras’ dominant home run, with five of their nine wins in the abovementioned ten-game sequence yielding multiple-goal margins. Yet, Abel Ferreira’s side can ill-afford to take anything for granted, knowing they’re up against a Botafogo team they’ve beaten just once in their last three H2Hs on this ground (D1, L1). Connoisseurs of action-packed football may want to look elsewhere for entertainment, considering seven of the eight most recent duels between these two sides at this venue have featured under 2.5 goals.

That narrative perfectly fits Botafogo’s bid to defy the odds in Sao Paulo and secure a quarter-final berth at the expense of their fierce rivals. The visitors are seemingly back on track after back-to-back defeats at the beginning of August, winning their last two matches against Palmeiras and Flamengo by an aggregate score of 6-2, largely thanks to quick-fire starts. Indeed, both games saw Artur Jorge’s side break the deadlock within the opening 25 minutes, which could be a recipe for success in this clash. But Botafogo’s scoring woes in this fixture are long-standing, with the visitors ominously netting under 1.5 goals on their last eight visits to Palmeiras’ home stadium since a 2-0 triumph in May 2015. Against this backdrop, ‘O Glorioso’ have bagged 2+ goals in three of their four most recent travels, though it didn’t do them much good (W1, D1, L2).